We’re currently working on two projects:
1. Evidence-based forecasting
As Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner observed in their 2015 bestseller Superforecasting:
More often forecasts are made and then … nothing. Accuracy is seldom determined after the fact and is almost never done with sufficient regularity and rigor that conclusions can be drawn.
Building on our study with the Resolution Foundation, we’re addressing this challenge head-on. Evaluating dozens of long-lost forecasts from the past century and more, we’re building a truly unique evidence base for futures thinking of every kind.
2. Memory decay
Most of us have lost correspondence, media or data, sometimes on a large and expensive scale. Working with clients, the causes seem manifold: digital disruption, mergers and acquisitions, employment fluidity, an ageing workforce and data deterioration. So far there exists no comprehensive research into the scale or impact of this phenomenon, or what solutions can be offered. This is exactly what we’re doing: look out for the results of our pilot study soon.
Photo by eager CC BY 2.0